Sunday, January 30, 2011

#1 - Wayne Gretzky

Wayne Gretzky (Murillo Pyramid Rank = #1)

Adjusted Stats

1979-1980 Edm         81 GP    46 goals   77 assists  123 points    1.52 PPG
1980-1981 Edm         82 GP    45 goals   89 assists  134 points    1.64 PPG
1981-1982 Edm         82 GP    72 goals   94 assists  166 points    2.03 PPG
1982-1983 Edm         82 GP    57 goals   101 assists 160 points   1.95 PPG
1983-1984 Edm*       76 GP    70 goals   94 assists  164 points    2.16 PPG
1984-1985 Edm*       82 GP    59 goals   110 assists 169 points   2.06 PPG
1985-1986 Edm         82 GP    41 goals   129 assists 171 points   2.09 PPG
1986-1987 Edm*       81 GP    53 goals   104 assists  157 points  1.94 PPG
1987-1988 Edm*       66 GP    34 goals   92 assists   126 points   1.92 PPG
1988-1989 LA           80 GP    45 goals   96 assists   141 points   1.77 PPG
1989-1990 LA           75 GP    34 goals   87 assists   121 points   1.62 PPG
1990-1991 LA           80 GP    37 goals   112 assists 149 points   1.86 PPG
1991-1992 LA           76 GP    28 goals   82 assists   110 points   1.45 PPG
1992-1993 LA           44 GP    14 goals   41 assists   54 points     1.22 PPG
1993-1994 LA           79 GP    35 goals   85 assists   120 points   1.52 PPG
1994-1995 LA           82 GP    19 goals   65 assists   84 points     1.02 PPG
1995-1996 LA/STL   80 GP     22 goals  77 assists   100 points   1.25 PPG
1996-1997 NYR        82 GP    26 goals   76 assists   102 points   1.24 PPG
1997-1998 NYR        82 GP    27 goals   78 assists   105 points   1.28 PPG
1998-1999 NYR        70 GP    11 goals   62 points    72 points    1.03 PPG

Adjusted Playoff Stats

1979-1980  Edm        3 GP      2 goals     1 assist       3 points      0.85 PPG
1980-1981  Edm        9 GP      5 goals     10 assists    15 points   1.65 PPG
1981-1982  Edm        5 GP      4 goals     5 assists      9 points     1.87 PPG
1982-1983  Edm        16 GP    9 goals     20 assists    30 points   1.85 PPG
1983-1984  Edm*      19 GP    12 goals   20 assists    31 points   1.64 PPG
1984-1985  Edm*      18 GP    13 goals   23 assists    35 points   1.96 PPG
1985-1986  Edm        10 GP    7 goals     10 assists    16 points   1.64 PPG
1986-1987  Edm*      21 GP    4 goals     26 assists    30 points   1.45 PPG
1987-1988  Edm*      19 GP    9 goals     23 assists    32 points   1.70 PPG
1988-1989  LA          11 GP    4 goals     15 assists    19 points   1.72 PPG
1989-1990  LA          7 GP      3 goals     6 assists      8 points     1.21 PPG
1990-1991  LA          12 GP    3 goals     9 assists      13 points   1.07 PPG
1991-1992  LA          6 GP      2 goals     4 assists      6 points     1.02 PPG
1992-1993  LA          24 GP    12 goals   21 assists    33 points   1.37 PPG
1995-1996  Stl           13 GP    2 goals     13 assists    15 points   1.18 PPG
1996-1997  NYR       15 GP    11 goals   11 assists    21 points   1.40 PPG

Career - 1544 GP, 775 goals, 1751 assists, 2528 points, 1.64 PPG
Career-Highs - 72 goals (81-82); 129 assists (85-86); 171 points (85-86), 2.16 PPG (83-84)
Avg. (20 seasons) - 77 GP, 39 goals, 88 assists, 126 points, 1.64 PPG
Peak Avg. (81-89) - 79 GP, 54 goals, 103 assists, 157 points, 1.99 PPG, 4 Cups

Playoff Career - 208 GP, 102 goals, 217 assists, 316 points, 1.52 PPG
Playoff-Highs - 13 goals (84-85); 26 assists (86-87); 35 points (84-85); 1.96 PPG (84-85)

Accolades - 9 MVP awards, 10 Art Ross, 5 Lady Byngs, 2 Conn Smythes
All-Star Teams - 8-time 1st-team, 7-time 2nd-team
4-time Stanley Cup Champion

The sometimes-amusing but more-often-than-not just plain wrongheaded Bill Watters mentioned a few weeks ago on his radio show that Wayne Gretzky, "as great a scorer as he was", didn't crack his own personal list of the FIVE greatest players of all-time. This from the same man who said following Vesa Toskala's first season with the Toronto Maple Leafs (in which, lest we forget, he wowed the city by posting a stellar .905 save percentage) was easily "one of the top ten goalies in the league". Well at least this eccentric radio personality wasn't making key personnel decisions for the Maple Leafs for a decade as their assistant GM. Oh wait. Remind me again why the Leafs haven't won the Cup in 44 years?

But I digress...why sully an appreciation of the greatest hockey player who ever lived with horrid terms like Toskala, Watters and Maple Leafs. The point is that, in this life, there are random opinions, informed opinions, and facts. And it is a fact that when compiling a list of the greatest hockey players to ever play the game, there are four names, and ONLY four names who are, to borrow from Bill Simmons, in the absolute pantheon: Gretzky, Orr, Howe, Lemieux. After that there is a dropoff...not to some level of mediocrity by any means (hell, we still have the Rocket, the Golden Jet, Beliveau, Sakic, Lidstrom, Harvey), but those are the fucking four!

So that's my order: Gretzky, Orr, Howe, Lemieux. 1-2-3-4. Feel free to argue about the 2-3-4, shuffle them about in your mind on a whim, depending on what you value on any given day. But on the 1, to quote Pappy from Seinfeld, "on this issue, there can be a-no-debate!".

I'll start by getting the easy ones out of the way:

Gretzky vs. Lemieux

Sorry to say this, as big a fan of the Magnificent One as I am, but there really isn't much of a debate here. The pro-Lemieux argument usually goes something like this: "if Lemieux were healthy, he'd have put up numbers like Gretzky", or a different spin on that, "Lemieux at his best was better than Gretzky at his best". Well, yes, maybe so. But how do we define "at their best"? For a day? A week? A season? Maybe 10% of the time, when the combination of motivation, good health and luck allowed for it, Mario Lemieux was as good if not better than Wayne Gretzky. But guess what? 100% of the time Wayne Gretzky was as good as Wayne Gretzky! And even when one factors in health and games played, Gretzky still comes out on top. Gretzky's 8-year adjusted peak PPG is a staggering 1.99; Lemieux's is an equally amazing 1.97. Almost a dead-heat. And Lemieux even takes over the edge in that his goals per game for that stretch are 0.81, while Gretzky's is 0.68. But here's the critical difference: during those 8 years, Gretzky played in 631 out of a possible 656 games; Lemieux played in only 457. So...you're a GM, and you can have a larger, unquestionably more physically-dominant player who scores goals at a better pace and gets you 2 points a game, but only for 55 games a year. Or you can have a guy who's still getting you 50+ goals a season, is certainly smaller and less imposing, but is getting you 2 points a game for 80 games a year! I'll take the second one.

Gretzky vs. Howe

For reasons I'll go into in the entry on Howe, as revered as he is, "Mr. Hockey" may actually be underrated by today's generation of hockey fans, who might not realize how tremendous an impact he had on the game. Hell, there's a reason that Gretzky's idol was Howe. But even though, post-leveling, Mr. Hockey ends up considerably closer to Gretzky statistically than he currently is (in real-stats, Gretzky has approximately 1,000 more points in his career than Howe...in adjusted stats, it's much tighter as we'll see), the fact is that Gretzky averaged 126 adj. points in his career, while Howe averaged 91. Well, yes, you might say, but Howe's career average is bogged down by all that skating he did while his hair was gray and his sons were playing alongside him. True, but even if we look at their peak 8-year stretch, Gretzky averages a staggering 157 points while Howe checks in with a still-remarkable 115.

But what about the famous Gordie Howe hat-trick? Gretzky never dropped the gloves or intimidated opponents...who was going to be scared of that scrawny young boy who looked like he'd be the underdog in a boxing match against Don Knotts? True, and points to Howe for being the more complete player. But when I'm talking about the greatest hockey player, I'm not talking about the most complete...I'm talking about the one who helps your team win the most (you'll hear this echoed when we get to Gretzky vs. Orr). And while I'm sure there is an enormous benefit to your team in having a player who can frighten opponents with the threat of a fight, if I'm getting spotted an extra 42 points a season...I'll take the wimp and let Semenko worry about dropping the gloves.

And now the tough one, the true apples-and-oranges:

Gretzky vs. Orr

This is, of course, an extremely difficult debate because the two played different positions: forward and defence. There is little doubt in my mind that Orr was the most revolutionary player in hockey history...before him, Doug Harvey was the premier puck-moving offensive defensemen, but Orr took the game to a whole new level. And as a defenceman, Orr dominated in all three zones, as opposed to Gretzky...although I still contend that Gretzky was an underrated defensive forward (the best defense is a good offense, after all...and check out those +/- numbers with the Oilers...staggering! Sure he didn't hit worth shit, but Gretzky just kept the puck to himself).

Having said that, I actually believe that the greatest six-year peak stretch of any player in NHL history belongs not to Gretzky, but to Orr. But here's why Gretzky beats out Orr...Orr may have had the best six-year stretch, but he has nothing other than those six years! Thanks to his recurring knee injuries, Orr was essentially finished after his remarkable 1974-1975 season. Whereas with Gretzky, you could take his peak six years, subtract them, and still find another stretch of six incredible seasons (the late ones with the Oilers and the early ones with the Kings).

So yeah, what Orr did was amazing at defence. But given that Gretzky, granted playing an overall less complete game and playing at forward, essentially had a stretch like Orr's TWICE in his career, I give the nod to the Great One.

So, the debate is settled. And this, by the way, is going to be the longest post of my blog, and it should be...because it's for the best player. So a few more random thoughts:

How many times have we heard the cliche "Wayne Gretzky wasn't the fastest skater, and he didn't have the best shot...but he had such great hockey sense, yada, yada, yada". Well you know what? He was one of the fastest skaters, and in my opinion, he did have the best shot. Perhaps not the hardest shot, but combined with its speed and accuracy, certainly the most lethal. We all remember Gretzky's OT winner against Mike Vernon in 1988...what few remember is that that goal was shorthanded, another indication that Gretzky was more of a complete player than he's given credit for. That goal was one of probably about a hundred that Gretzky scored via slapshot. We know he's the best passer the game has ever seen...what's rarely remarked upon is how he could always find the corner.

It's interesting to note that there's a bit of a perception that Gretzky's New York Rangers days were forgettable. Well, look at the adjusted stats...three straight 100-point seasons leading to his retirement year, in which he still averaged over a point a game. Gretzky's Ranger years are like Julia Louis-Dreyfus these days. Yeah, she wouldn't crack your top 10, just as the Ranger seasons aren't among Gretzky's ten best. But fuck man, she's 49 years old!!! If I'm married to that when I'm 49, or 35, or who am I trying to fool, NOW, I'm going to be a very happy man. (As a side note, Julia Louis-Dreyfus has, in my books, out Heather Lockleared Heather Locklear, as a hottie who in her supposed "prime", i.e. early-to-mid 20s, was the victim of brutal 80s fashion and hairstyles, then in the mid-90s revealed herself as smoking hot before continuing to be gorgeous well into her 40s. But even Locklear didn't make it to 50 looking this good).

And for those who think Gretzky's swansong with the Rangers might have been a failure in terms of team success, let's not forget that his reunion with Messier went pretty decently in its first year, 1996-1997, when the team made the Conference Finals before losing to Philadelphia when Eric Lindros was at his peak. Remember Gretzky's mericless slapshot against John Vanbiesbrouck? That was in the playoffs of that year.

But back to Gretzky's prime (his Megan Fox/Jessica Alba/Miranda Kerr days if you will): we know that the 1980s were high-scoring, and so I think there might be a tendency to just let Gretzky's insane scoring numbers wash over you. They just seem...wrong! 215 points here, 212 there, 92 goals, 50 in 39, I mean come-on! It seems like the sort-of aberration you see when looking at the rebounding numbers of Chamberlain or Russell in the early 60s, or for that matter, Chamberlain's scoring numbers.

That's one of the reasons I wanted to do this leveling of statistics...to show that, yes, Gretzky's numbers were a bit inflated by playing during the run-and-gun 1980s. But fuck...still look at the numbers, even when adjusted! 157 points AVERAGED over an 8-year stretch. AVERAGED!!! 157! (As a side note, the actual total, before accounting for the high-scoring 1980s, is an average of 192 points over eight seasons. Insane. This is why Gretzky's records won't be broken any time soon. The league would have to return to a run-and-gun style, or failing that make the nets bigger, and someone of comparable ability to Gretzky would have to come along and stay healthy for eight seasons).

To put that in perspective, Sidney Crosby was in the midst of a great season of hockey before David Steckel's elbow disrupted it. Halfway through the year, he had 65 points in 40 games, and that's in a climate that is somewhat lower-scoring than the common average of 6.15 GPG. Think of how ahead of everyone else Crosby is. It just doesn't feel, at this moment, like anyone is in his stratosphere. Maybe Stamkos, but no, not yet, and probably not ever. Ovechkin for sure until this season...and I'm sure the Great 8 will get it back. But Ovie at his best was never as good as Crosby was in the first half of this year. And here's the kicker: even factoring in all leveling of statistics, if Crosby had continued at this pace for the rest of the year, his adjusted point total would be 148. Fantastic, no doubt. One of the best seasons in hockey history. So that was Crosby's pace, in which he was clearly head-and-shoulders above everyone else.

148 was his pace. Over half a year, before he sustained his concussion. Gretzky averaged 157 over his best eight years. Oh by the way, he also won four Stanley Cups, nine MVP awards, and was the leading scorer in the 1987 Canada Cup tournament. Somehow, "Great" starts to seem too weak an adjective.

No comments:

Post a Comment