Wednesday, February 9, 2011

#55 - Alexander Ovechkin

Alexander Ovechkin (Murillo Pyramid Rank = #55)

Adjusted Stats

2005-2006 Wsh         81 GP  53 goals   55 assists   108 points   1.33 PPG
2006-2007 Wsh         82 GP  49 goals   49 assists   98 points     1.20 PPG
2007-2008 Wsh         82 GP  73 goals   53 assists   127 points   1.54 PPG
2008-2009 Wsh         79 GP  60 goals   58 assists   119 points   1.50 PPG
2009-2010 Wsh         72 GP  55 goals   65 assists   119 points   1.66 PPG
2010-2011 Wsh         79 GP  36 goals   60 assists   96 points     1.21 PPG

Adjusted Playoff Stats

2007-2008  Wsh         7 GP    4 goals     5 assists     9 points      1.35 PPG
2008-2009  Wsh         14 GP  11 goals   10 assists   22 points    1.54 PPG
2009-2010  Wsh         7 GP    5 goals     5 assists     9 points      1.34 PPG
2010-2011  Wsh         9 GP    5 goals     5 assists     10 points    1.11 PPG

Career - 475 GP, 326 goals, 340 assists, 667 points, 1.40 PPG
Career-Highs - 73 goals (07-08); 65 assists (09-10); 127 points (07-08); 1.66 PPG (09-10)
Avg. (6 seasons) - 79 GP, 54 goals, 57 assists, 111 points, 1.40 PPG

Playoff Career - 37 GP, 25 goals, 25 assists, 50 points, 1.35 PPG
Playoff-Highs - 11 goals (08-09); 10 assists (08-09); 22 points (08-09); 1.54 PPG (08-09)

Accolades - 2 MVP awards, 2 Richard Trophies, Art Ross, Calder
All-Star Teams - 5-time 1st-team, 1-time 2nd-team
Has Not Won Stanley Cup

Writing this entry right before the start of the 2011 playoffs, I feel like Alex Ovechkin has fully gotten it. He'll never be mistaken for a backchecking specialist, but Ovechkin seems to have embraced the full nature of being the captain and leader of the Washington Capitals. Just recently, in two separate games, I saw him diving repeatedly to block shots while the team was protecting a one-goal lead, and in another game he passed off a sure empty-net goal to Jason Chimera, truly selfless considering that Ovie has been criticized for his lack of goal scoring in 10-11. Minor things, to be sure, but indicative of a captain who has matured.

Left-wing has historically been a scarce position, and for that reason, I think it's fair to say that Alex Ovechkin, if all goes well in his career, may have a shot at being considered the greatest left-winger to ever play the game...or failing that, a close second to Bobby Hull. That's where Ovechkin's career fits in right now, as a comparitive to Bobby Hull. His 73 adjusted goals in 07-08 are one of the highest totals in NHL history, and so far he's averaged an astonishing 54 goals in his first six seasons. With five first all-star team appearances and two MVP awards, Ovechkin just needs a few more consistent years and he will shoot up the Pyramid, probably into the top twenty players ever. As mentioned, Ovie was a little off his game, at least production-wise, for the 10-11 year, but he will of course gladly trade the stats for the one thing that Crosby has hanging over him: a Stanley Cup.

As I mentioned in the blogs on Lemieux, Sakic and Yzerman, it's a dangerous game to make proclamations about a player when they are only six years into their career, proclamations like "Ovechkin will never win a Stanley Cup". History has a way of making sure that the great players have their moment, and their is no doubt that Ovechkin is a great player. This isn't some Ilya Kovalchuk-style player who gets goals at an impressive rate but is a drain on his team...the Capitals are one of the winningest organizations in hockey in the past several years because of Ovechkin. And let's put the playoff "chokes" in perspective: the first-round exit against Montreal was the product of running into a goalie playing out of this world...the very same goalie who would go on in the next round to shut down the apparently big-game Crosby. And the year before that, the Capitals were neck-and-neck with the Penguins in the conference semifinals, going the full distance to seven games with the eventual champions (granted, they did lay a pretty unforgivable egg in that seventh game).

In 2011, it seemed as if the Capitals might finally get it done after trouncing the New York Rangers in the first round and embracing a defense-first system. Unfortunately, they were completely shut down by the Tampa Bay Lightning, and although Ovechkin scored some clutch goals in the series, he was forced once again to bear the brunt of the criticism for his team's failure.

For the record, Ovechkin has averaged 1.43 adjusted points per game in his three playoff years. Crosby has averaged 1.35; Malkin 1.21. Granted, Crosby and Malkin, due to the Penguins' team success, have played almost twice as many playoff games and have sipped from Lord Stanley's Cup, but it's not like Ovechkin has pulled a Joe Thornton come playoff time. If you want to point fingers at the Capitals for their 1st-round loss in 2010 or the second-round loss in 2011, better culprits would be Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Tomas Fleischmann and Brooks Laich, all of whom were non-existent in terms of production.

In 2011, Ovechkin's production dipped to a still-respectable 1.21 adjusted points-per-game, his second-lowest output. The Capitals aren't destroying teams like they did in the past, but perhaps they are pulling a '97 Red Wings and laying low in the regular season after realizing that it's essentially meaningless. The Capitals have spent the entire season trying to incorporate a more defensive style, since they know that they have offensive guns like Ovechkin who can light the lamp when needed.

So it's my feeling that Ovechkin will enjoy team success soon. I may be wrong, but it's too early to judge. If in, say, six or seven more years the Capitals haven't won anything, then Ovechkin will have crossed the Joe Thornton threshhold and is ripe for criticism. In fact, if that's the case, he will almost surely go down as the greatest to never win a Cup (his career accomplishments look to be on pace to shatter those of my current nominee for that dubious honour, Marcel Dionne). But it's far too early to tell now, and I envision that by the end of it all, Ovechkin will have a cup, and will be in the discussion of the top ten players of all-time, somewhere around the Bobby Hull level. Only time will tell.

Postscript #1 (after 2011 playoffs) - Well, it was the same old story for the Capitals in the 2011 playoffs. After defeating a defensive-minded New York Rangers team by doing their best impression of the 1995 Devils, the analysts were already anointing the Capitals as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. Someone forgot to tell the Tampa Bay Lightning, who swept the Capitals right out of the second round. And once again, Ovechkin will no doubt get the blame for failing to take his team to the promised land, or the Capitals' goaltending. And the reason is: people like to regurgitate the same theories even when they're not true. But Ovie showed true heart in the playoffs, scoring multiple times to tie the game with 90 seconds or less to play against both New York and Tampa Bay. And the Caps' goaltending wasn't an issue either, just as it wasn't during the 2010 loss to the Habs. The problem? The supporting cast pulled a Houdini act. Nicklas Backstrom scored just 2 points in 9 games...laughably bad for the #2 guy on the team. And Semin didn't fare much better, with only 6 points.

So blame Ovechkin if you must. Just know that you're criticizing one of the highest-PPG rates in postseason history.

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